4 October 2024 | Jennifer Parker
Image:This picture shows projectiles being intercepted by Israel near the northern city of Baqa al-Gharbiya
For much of its recent history, Australia has had the luxury of seeing conflict as a distant event, experienced by most through television, computer screens or newspapers. However, while the recent escalation between Iran and Israel might seem remote, Australia cannot afford to be complacent. The lessons from this escalation should serve as a stark warning for Australia – and the Australian public must take notice.
The normative behaviours that have underpinned the global world order are fraying.
This was clear when Russia illegally invaded Ukraine in 2022.
It was clear when China’s People’s Liberation Army air force deployed chaff in front of Australian aircraft in international airspace in 2022 and 2024. And it is abundantly clear with the launch of hundreds of Iranian missiles against Israel for the second time in six months.
While global or regional conflict involving Australia is neither inevitable nor probable, the fraying of international norms, the latest example of which is Iran’s ballistic missile attack, makes the trendlines clear: the likelihood of conflict in Australia’s region is increasing as international norms break down.
In this fraying of the international world order, China may seek to seize the opportunity to invade Taiwan as China’s internal economic situation deteriorates. Its increased aggression towards The Philippines in the South China Sea may result in a miscalculation that quickly sparks a broader conflict.
Or North Korea, the nuclear pariah, could launch an unexpected nuclear strike on South Korea – just as it surprised the world with its torpedo attack on a South Korean warship in 2010, killing 46 sailors.
These scenarios are not probable; however, until 2024, neither was Iran launching hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel.
If the key lesson for Australia from this week’s Iranian missile attack on Israel is that the erosion of global norms increases the likelihood of conflict, the second lesson is that Australia must contemplate the nuclear implications of this increasingly unstable world. Underpinning the dynamics in the Middle East is the estimation that Iran may be on the path to becoming a nuclear weapons state.
Whether Iran has made this decision, and exactly how long it would take to achieve such a capability, are unclear.
What is clear is that Iran is failing to comply with International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. Its strategy of engaging proxy forces across the region is being broken down by Israeli attacks in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and Yemen – and it may well be resorting to a new strategy – a nuclear weapons strategy. The taboo around the proliferation of nuclear weapons is cracking. The thought that a country such as Iran, willing to launch hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, may shortly acquire nuclear weapons is chilling. But it may also have wider implications, sparking increased proliferation of nuclear weapons across the Middle East and globally.
A nuclear-armed Iran could prompt Saudi Arabia and other countries to pursue their own nuclear capabilities. This situation may increasingly strain the successful 44-year-old Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Meanwhile, North Korea continues to develop its nuclear capabilities, the South Korean public increasingly debates the benefits of nuclear weapons, China accelerates its nuclear weapons program, and Russia regularly threatens the use of tactical nuclear weapons, further eroding the nuclear taboo.
As Australians watch footage of Iranian ballistic missiles being intercepted over Israel, they must recognise that the threat of nuclear war is also rising, with increasing proliferation of nuclear weapons and a diminishing threshold for their use. The trendlines from the escalating conflict in the Middle East resonate in Australia’s backyard. The threat of conflict involving Australia is no longer negligible and may carry nuclear implications.
So, what does this new reality mean for Australia?
First and foremost, it means we must double down on diplomacy, continue our proud tradition as a leader in multilateral and mini-lateral forums, strengthen communication with China to understand its position, and shine a light on the erosion of global norms, including China’s aggressive behaviour from the maritime to the cyber domain. But we must do more than this; we must focus on preparedness, engage in difficult societal conversations and invest in defence.
Yes, the current government has announced record investments across the Defence portfolio, but the funding comes too late. Defence lacks the necessary resources, and Australia lacks the capabilities it needs.
While terms such as “Iron Dome”, Israel’s missile defence system, have entered common parlance, the truth is Australia does not have the same ability to protect its cities and critical infrastructure.
Australia would not be as successful as Israel in intercepting hundreds of ballistic missiles, should our region turn to conflict.
As the Australian public witnesses the graphic images of Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Israel, we must heed the warnings about the changing world order. Australia must not only double down on diplomatic efforts to prevent conflict, it must also engage the public.
We must have the difficult conversations to ensure we can develop a prepared and resilient society – resilience that will strengthen our deterrence.
We must enhance our defence capabilities to deter conflict and protect our interests if necessary. Complacency is no longer an option for Australia.
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